Convention becomes 'The Palin Show'

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has accomplished in less than a week what John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and the rest of the once-expansive GOP field failed to do in a full 18 months of campaigning: She has energized, even thrilled, the conservative base of the Republican Party.

Palin's selection as McCain's running mate is the ubiquitous buzz of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. The combination of an historic pick, thanks to her gender; an ideological sister in arms, thanks to her conservative record; and a sense of momentum she has brought to what has at times felt like an unfocused campaign makes Palin practically irresistible to delegates, donors and activists gathered in the Twin Cities.

Barack Obama still leads national polls, and a creeping sense that the Illinois senator is actually farther ahead than those polls demonstrate had begun to sink in among political professionals in both parties. But with Palin's surprise selection, the race seems destined to close as more Republicans transition from soft McCain supporters to those willing to knock on doors and make phone calls on behalf of their ticket.

The excitement generated could also have a positive effect on other political arenas in which Republicans might not have a banner year. "She's ignited the Republican base," National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole said in an interview today. "You've got to have that element out fully in force" to elect Republicans up and down the ballot.

Palin, Cole said, also fundamentally alters the state of the race. "If you're a Republican, you need to make the public take a second look at you this cycle," he said. "It makes people re-look at McCain, too." Cole said his phone is "ringing off the wall" with candidates requesting a visit from the newly minted nominee.

But McCain faces a dangerous prospect after picking such a hot up-and-coming candidate. By picking someone not widely viewed as on the short list, McCain gave the media the difficult job of profiling his nominee in a matter of hours, at the most; had Romney or Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, two other widely rumored short-listers, been chosen, their profiles would have already been written, or at least easily compiled from prepared research.

That means the campaign was either deluged with requests for clarifications of earlier statements and positions the governor made and held, or simply not consulted about her personal past. Without the opportunity to provide input, McCain's campaign lost what little control of the story they had. Largely positive press has, in at least some respects, been overshadowed by troubles, both minor and major, with her nomination.

Countless delegates have told reporters that they intended to come to St. Paul as unenthusiastic backers of McCain but are now enthusiastic about the combined ticket. That's mixed news for McCain, who now finds himself in danger of being eclipsed by his own subordinate. With all the media attention on Palin and delegates' mounting excitement in anticipation of her speech tonight, McCain has been somewhat overlooked.

A vice presidential nominee overshadowing the top of the ticket was a prime concern Democrats had about any so-called unity ticket featuring both U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Obama. With two such strong personalities, either serving as an understudy would certainly garner as much attention as the presidential nominee. Thanks largely to that problem, as well as the fraying relationship the two have, was one reason many political pundits never considered a unity ticket feasible or realistic.

Finally, no matter what fierce party loyalists will say, Palin does have some serious baggage the campaign will have to overcome. An investigation surrounding the firing of a state public safety commissioner promises to embarrass at least some in the Palin administration in Juneau, and even if Palin is completely exonerated, the whiff of scandal in this day and age is enough to taint. Palin's apparent multiple positions on earmarks -- seeking to end them as governor after pursuing federal dollars while mayor -- could take some of the shine off as well.

Perhaps Palin's biggest drawback is the simple fact that the vast majority of the American public does not know her. That's not surprising for a new governor from Alaska (Forget new governor, how many people know Linda Lingle is the second-term chief executive of Hawaii?). But it does give Democrats the opportunity to define her, whether through surrogate talking points and paid media, as an out-of-the-mainstream conservative. Palin gets a head start with her speech tonight, but Democrats will be right behind them.

Initial jubilation on both sides notwithstanding, Palin's actual impact on the race will be neither the godsend Republicans think nor the death knell Democrats expect. But when every minute part of candidates' strategies are scrutinized, Palin will likely get part of the credit for McCain's victory or defeat. If conservative reaction to the early days of Palin's presence on the ticket is any indication, even if McCain loses, she could be back on the national stage.

Reid Wilson, national columnist for Politicker.com, is also an associate editor of RealClearPolitics.com and covers Senate, House and governors' races at PoliticsNation.com. Contact him at reid@realclearpolitics.com.