Rossi camp sets bar low for primary

Gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi: Campaign PhotoThe Rossi campaign sent out a memo Tuesday, exactly one week before the August 19 "top two" primary, attempting to set expectations for the primary results.

"Based on historical data and recent polling data," the memo states, "our campaign does not expect to win in the primary."

Specifically, they cite the fact that no Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1972 has ever been the top vote getter coming out of the primary, despite the fact that the Republican candidate has won the general election twice in that time period.

In 1972 Democrat Al Rosellini took 30 percent of the primary vote compared to Republican Dan Evans' 25, then lost to Evans 51-43 in the general election. In 1980 Democrat Jim McDermott won 33 percent of the vote, followed by Democrat Dixie Lee Ray at 24 and Republican John Spellman at 17 percent. Spellman then won the general election 57-43 over McDermott, despite the fact that he would not have qualified for the November ballot under today's rules.

In 2004 Rossi garnered about 60,000 fewer votes than Gregoire in the primary, and narrowed the gap to 133 in the general.

The Rossi camp also takes time to mention that very few relevant races across the state carry high stakes, thus dampening the prospect of high voter turnout. Among those competitive they mention the superintendent of public instruction race, the state treasurer's race and a handful of state legislative races.

Finally, they cite Gregoire's tv spending advantage so far, and the recent Moore poll they had commissioned that showed a dead heat between Rossi and Gregoire, 45-45. Yet among probable primary voters in that same poll Gregoire led 51-42 with 6 percent undecided.

"Here's our point," the conclude, "we do not consider this primary any better of a prediction of the general election outcome than it was in 2004."