Throughout most of the presidential campaign, polling by Survey USA showed that there has been a gender gap between U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) among Washington state voters. Obama has typically led among both groups, but by a considerably larger margin among women than men. That margin had been relatively consistent:
Obama lead over McCain among women/men (gender gap)
4/17: +19/+7 (+12)
5/13: +22/+2 (+20)
6/10: +25/+7 (+18)
7/16: +22/+10 (+12)
8/13: +15/+0 (+15)
In these cases the gender gap -- the difference in support margins between women and men -- was +12, +20, +18, +12 and +15 points.
On Aug. 29, McCain announced that Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) would be his vice-presidential running mate. The next Survey USA poll conducted between Sept. 5 and 7 showed a major change in voter preferences:
Obama lead over McCain among women/men (gender gap)
9/8: +5/+4 (+1)
The gender gap disappeared to a statistically insiginficant one point. In the latest survey released yesterday, the results are even more dramatic:
Obama lead over McCain among women/men (gender gap)
9/23: +8/+13 (-5)
There is once again a gender gap, but it is now 5 points in the opposite direction, a phenomenon not yet observed in many other states. Men in Washington state now prefer Obama over McCain by a wider margin than do women, despite -- or perhaps due to -- the presence of Sarah Palin on the McCain ticket.
Note that we have used a different definition from what is traditionally refered to as the "gender gap." It is usually defined as the percentage difference in support for the winning candidate between women and men. Using that definition, the analysis still holds. The gender gap has been: +6, +9, +9, +4, +8, 0, -3
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