Down-ballot blues

There is much speculation about down-ballot voting and how it will wash. The theory is that people get very excited about the president, and that excitement will either help or hurt those candidates that are further down on the ballot – governor, state senator, etc.

The Seattle Times today has a special on why young Obama voters may not help down-ticket candidates like Governor Gregoire. Rich Roesler at the Spokesman has also noted how ballot order can affect lesser-known candidates.

Except that in Washington, ballot order begins with statewide initiatives, followed by countywide initiatives, and then the elected offices appear in their usual order, and the names of candidates competing those offices are ordered randomly.

While down-ballot races like governor continue to be further down the ballot than president, the presidential race itself is down the ballot and could conceivably be near the middle or end of the first page. So the ordinary rules of people who vote for the first thing they see – president – and then stop voting, may not apply.

The Times article points to the Oregon primary as evidence of down-ballot drop-off, but fails to take into account the fact that only the most motivated vote in primaries at all. The name recognition of presidential candidates in that primary was certainly higher than the name recognition of even the U.S. Senate candidates. But, between now and November, the visibility and name recognition of statewide candidates, if not those with smaller districts, will begin to match that of the presidential candidates and the down-ballot drop-off will even out.

Starting the ballot with initiative summaries and requiring the voter to scan the entire ballot to find the presidential race may encourage voters to actually read and vote on the entire ballot, instead of just checking one box and walking away.

Then again, if the presidential race is indeed on the first page of the ballot, those on the flip side might be foiled.